The point is not trivial, as it is behind the logic of evolution. “Long gamma” means “benefits from volatility and variability.”. To me, every opinion maker needs to have “skin in the game” in the event of harm caused by reliance on his information or opinion. The cost of a squeeze is determined by the size of the entity being squeezed; the larger something is, the harder the squeeze. For the antifragile, shocks bring more benefits (equivalently, less harm) as their intensity increases (up to a point).

Banishment and exile, or, worse, ostracism were severe penalties—people did not move around voluntarily and considered uprooting a horrible calamity. My verdict?

Real knowledge comes from the process of Random Tinkering (antifragile) → Heuristics (technology) → Practice and Apprenticeship –> Random Tinkering (antifragile) → Heuristics (technology) → Practice and Apprenticeship. Innovation is saying no to 1,000 things. Via negativa.

In the case of these specialists, these people gain prestige when they are right, but they do not suffer consequences when they are wrong. Everything nonlinear in response is either fragile or antifragile to a certain source of randomness. Instead of trying to predict what is going to happen, position yourself in such a way that you have optionality. Work, investing, social policy, exercise. By registering, you get 3 days If the system brings you opportunities, but with no obligation on your side, you have the optionality. In the antifragile case (of positive asymmetries, positive Black Swan businesses), such as trial and error, the sample track record will tend to underestimate the long-term average; it will hide the qualities, not the defects. Anyone who goes into public service should not be allowed to subsequently earn more from any commercial activity than the income of the highest paid civil servant.
And there are a few ways you can make yourself more resistant to shocks. Talk to either undergraduate students, cab drivers, and gardeners or the highest caliber scholars; never to middling-but-career-conscious academics. Written informally, the notes … Humans may have an instinct to procrastinate only when no life is in danger. My experience of good practitioners is that they can be totally incomprehensible—they do not have to put much energy into turning their insights and internal coherence into elegant style and narratives. The difference between a thousand pebbles and a large stone of equivalent weight is a potent illustration of how fragility stems from nonlinear effects.

A volatile market doesn’t let people go such a long time without a “cleanup” of risks, thereby preventing such market collapses. Distinction between complex and non-complex systems: complex systems have many interdependencies. Every additional deviation in, say, the unemployment rate— particularly when the government has debt— makes deficits incrementally worse. No better time than now to start learning!

If you dislike someone, leave him alone or eliminate him; don’t attack him verbally. The tradition in Catalonia was to behead bankers in front of their own banks. The point isn’t that making a living in a profession is inherently bad; rather, it’s that such a person becomes automatically suspect when dealing with public affairs, matters that involve others. Prometheus means “fore-thinker” while Epimetheus means “after-thinker,” equivalent to someone who falls for the retrospective distortion of fitting theories to past events in an ex post narrative. We are blind to the possibility of the alternative process, or the role of such a process, a loop: Random Tinkering (antifragile) → Heuristics (technology) → Practice and Apprenticeship → Random Tinkering (antifragile) → Heuristics (technology) → Practice and Apprenticeship. I do not procrastinate after a severe injury. Noise is what you are supposed to ignore, signal what you need to heed. When we exercise we put our bodies through unusual stress.

Or to rephrase. The flâneur is not a prisoner of a plan. I’m using the skin in the game heuristic for deciding what advice to listen to. For you don’t have to be right that often.

We are built to be dupes for theories. The very idea of exercise is to gain from antifragility to workout stressors. Otherwise, ignore him. The false narrative of the Industrial Revolution is an example of how modern society doesn’t understand the importance of antifragility. Random stressors (within reason, ie. So every time the beast was harmed, it benefitted; the Hydra was therefore antifragile. Once again, the economy provides us with a good example of how tranquility can be disastrous. This explains my statement that you can be dumb and antifragile and still do very well. The economy, for example, has an almost biological structure and is so complex that it has become antifragile. Just look at the “how to” books with, in their title, “Ten Steps for—” (fill in: enrichment, weight loss, making friends, innovation, getting elected, building muscles, finding a husband, running an orphanage, etc.). The Green Lumber Fallacy – fallacy the situation in which one mistakes a source of necessary knowledge— the greenness of lumber— for another, less visible from the outside, less tractable, less narratable.

What did you learn from Antifragile? great summary.

Each time someone cut one of the heads, two others grew in that place. Today our society does not understand the importance of antifragility and the official narrative of Industrial Revolution is proof of this. It is because you make people feel stupid for blindly following habits, instincts, and traditions. They have become antifragile at the expense of everybody else. Optionality is Promethean, narratives are Epimethean.

Also remember that volatility is information.

Evolution proceeds by undirected, convex bricolage or tinkering, inherently robust, i.e., with the achievement of potential stochastic gains thanks to continuous, repetitive, small, localized mistakes. The rarer the event, the less tractable, and the less we know about how frequent its occurrence. Book Summary of Antifragile: Things that Gain From Disorder by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Notes The wind energizes the fire and extinguishes the candle. By trying to make these systems more predictable, we are stealing the volatility they need to survive and evolve. There are, however, a few artificial systems that are also antifragile. No, we don’t put theories into practice.

In life, antifragility is reached by not being a sucker. Start a free trial and gain access to the knowledge of the biggest non-fiction bestsellers.

One can also call it, more technically, a bimodal strategy, as it has two distinct modes rather than a single, central one. The optionality exists in all systems. And there are a few ways you can make yourself more resistant to shocks. Anything one needs to market heavily is necessarily either an inferior product or an evil one. Here at 12min, we are big fans of Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Cherry-picking has optionality: the one telling the story (and publishing it) has the advantage of being able to show the confirmatory examples and completely ignore the rest— and the more volatility and dispersion, the rosier the best story will be (and the darker the worst story). Most think that theoretical advances have guided the technological advances that transform the way society produces products and thus the economy.

5 Small amounts per trial, lots of trials, broader than you want. Seneca’s practical method to counter such fragility was to go through. They therefore formed an antifragile system.

Unfortunately, a day before the conference, the airline informs you that your flight is cancelled. Exposure is more important than knowledge; decision effects supersede logic. However, the risk of a massive fire is reduced every time a small fire occurs. Re-read, it's worth it ;). Thanks for signing up!

Once again, “nonlinear” means that the response is not straightforward and not a straight line, so if you double, say, the dose, you get a lot more or a lot less than double the effect— if I throw at someone’s head a ten-pound stone, it will cause more than twice the harm of a five-pound stone, more than five times the harm of a two-pound stone, etc. A central feature of positive Black Swans. This is a true barbell in every sense of the word: he can fall back on his previous profession should the speculation fail, or fail to bring the expected satisfaction. If in "The Black Swan" Taleb has shown us that highly improbable and unpredictable events are widespread and shape our world, in his new book he brings us a concept as interesting as the Swan. Philosophers talk about truth and falsehood.

In general, society places far too much value on theoretical, or academic, knowledge and not nearly enough on practical knowledge. Adam Smith understood the opacity of complex systems as well as the interdependencies, since he developed the notion of the “invisible hand.”. But they don’t: something deemed “original” tends to be modeled on something that was new at the time but is no longer new, so being an Einstein for many scientists means solving a similar problem to the one Einstein solved when at the time Einstein was not solving a standard problem at all. The Triad – Fragile, Robust, Antifragile –. When the author was working in highly volatile global currency markets, he was surprised to find that often the most successful traders were also the most uneducated.

Romans got their political system by tinkering, not by “reason.”. Antifragility implies more to gain than to lose, equals more upside than downside, equals (favorable) asymmetry. If you have saved 90% of your assets to avoid exposing yourself to potential fluctuations in the economy, you can now use the remaining 10% in the best possible way. This property is very central to life. “Antifragile PDF Summary” It seems like Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues to impress with his ideas. We humans scorn what is not concrete. A man is honorable in proportion to the personal risks he takes for his opinion— in other words, the amount of downside he is exposed to. When you look at the actual history of someone’s activities, instead of what thoughts he will deliver after the facts, things become crystal clear. Download now and read for free. At Davos, during a private coffee conversation that I thought aimed at saving the world from, among other things, moral hazard and agency problems, I was interrupted by Alan Blinder, a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, who tried to sell me a peculiar investment product that aims at legally hoodwinking taxpayers. Knowing what the negative part is, you can reduce your risks.

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